Thursday, July 07, 2005


Keith Foulke, and the birth of PoP

With Keith back in Boston and headed for the DL, I've wondered if people actually want to see this. So I asked Jere. He said yes, he definitely wants to see it. So maybe this is just for him:

The moment I completed this chart, and looked at it, I wondered how can I interpret this?

Suddenly I remembered the most interesting part of my very first chart, the one without quantified numbers... I had divided the outings into categories and I had counted up the outings in each category. And in the end it was the most useful to know the percentage of successfull outings. And thus, a new ratio is born. So before we sweep Keith Foulke completely out of our present memory, let us note that his PoP (positive outing percentage) has dropped from 73% in 2004 to 57% in 2005. And yes, I know we don't have much to compare that to, yet... it seems I have a great deal more number crunching in my future.

It seems to me that the PoP is useful for all pitchers, but most useful for relievers. While relievers sometimes suffer from a smaller sample size in batters, the starters have a smaller sample size in outings. The charts, which are very telling for starters, are very confusing for relievers, and the PoP is much easier for the mind to wrap around. Anyway, here it is... another fascinating statistic brought to you by Reb Sox. Do with it what you will.

Edit: the BpB cutoff for PoP is currently set at <.500. Anyone who cares, please take a look at the charts and let me know if you think this is acceptable, or if we ought to move it up to <.600, or something else. Your input is appreciated. -reb

Yeah, if you raise it to .600, I take it we'd see a bigger difference in Foulke's PoP from last year to this year. So, if only for that, I say raise the line to .600.

This will create the "Six-hundred (Or De-centered Average) Positive Outing Percentage," or "SODA PoP" statictic.

But it will only count in special kases. So that will be a special index, giving it the final title "SODA PoP In SK I"
that's interesting,jere. the pic really goes well with the concept we're trying to get across here. Someone should give you a job in publishing, no?

I had a lot more people in mind than just Foulkie. Wade Miller, for example, has hovered between .4 and .6 in most of his starts. Changing the cutoff point to .6 would change his PoP from 55% to 81%. Matt Clement's PoP would change from 61% to 89%. That's pretty significant. The outings in this range, while not great, aren't exactly bad. I think we need to look at the outings and determine whether or not they should be considered "positive."

I say we get past Soda Popinski and move on to Mr. Sandman.
Yeah, Jere, I agree. Just watch for him to flash silver. That means he's about to throw a huge upper cut. Remember Doc's advice: Stick and move, stick and move!
Good call, Jere. Now with Super Macho Man, there are TWO types of that spin-around punch. The one with the big wind up, and the one where he keeps going around and around. Just keep dodging til he stops spinning, then attack.
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